Market - EnergyByte

Basslink Puzzle

Basslink is now regulated but it is puzzling why is it so, and why are Victorians paying 75% of the costs when Tasmania is the main beneficiary. If Basslink benefits are questionable, what does this mean for MarinusLink.

12 min read Jul 2, 2026

Market public

Wind price-impact lessens

Carl Daley

In winter 2025, low wind days were dangerous as they produced extreme spot prices. In winter 2026, low wind days have been far less influential. Battery storage has broken the link between low wind and high prices, making wind a less influential price driver than it was a year ago.

4 min read Jun 10, 2026

Market public

Challenges facing renewables

Carl Daley

Solar farms across the NEM are earning less than 30 cents for every dollar of softening baseload prices, while LGC prices have collapsed. The wind sector is not immune and is facing higher canibilisation risks. PPA sellers may feel protected for now, but PPA buyers are already feeling the pain.

12 min read Jun 9, 2026

Market public

May-26 Generation Trends

Carl Daley

Battery storage transformed the NEM's evening peak in May-26, with prices dramatically lower across all regions year-on-year. QLD was the only region adding net renewable supply in the month, SA and VIC faced steep daytime price increases, and transmission flows increasingly shaped outcomes.

18 min read Jun 5, 2026

Market paid

Record Low Forward Prices for Q1-26

Carl Daley

For this time of the quarter, VIC has struck a 10-year Q1 low while NSW & QLD have hit a low point not seen for 5-years. The weekend volatility in NSW might help turn the tide, and history teaches us that you must treat the market with respect. But the staggering downward trends are unmistakable.

4 min read Jan 11, 2026

Market public

November Finale - Impact

Carl Daley

Last week we wrote about how the final week of November has a history in shaping the market, especially for the pending summer. Well, for this year, the shaping lived up to the tradition; but in a very different manner.

6 min read Dec 1, 2025

Market public

Q3-25 Seller's Premium

Carl Daley

Each quarter the market faces the same question: should I buy, sell, or wait? The current Q3-25 quarter is no exception and is on track to deliver a substantial Seller's premium as the laws of probability have played out.

4 min read Sep 22, 2025

Market public

Portfolio Optimisation Science

Carl Daley

For any market participant, large consumer or trading house with exposure to the spot price and financial market, it is challenging to develop optimal risk-adjusted trading or hedging strategies. Based on our many years of experience, we have developed a rewarding and effective approach.

6 min read Jul 16, 2025

Market public

June 2025 Reflections

Carl Daley

The Q2-25 forward price gradually declined well below pre-quarter expectations given the softer spot outcomes. This affected the sentiment for all future quarters causing expectations and forward prices to soften. However, before the quarter ended, the stars aligned and June gripped with vengeance.

8 min read Jul 3, 2025

Market public

Thu 26th June 2025 Event

Carl Daley

Last night delivered severe market price conditions. Triple ‘C ‘Day weather conditions (cold, calm, cloudy) eliminated wind generation and drive peak heating demand. This event shifts market price perceptions as well as being both a warning and a roadmap, for building a more resilient energy future.

10 min read Jun 27, 2025

Events public

January 2024 sets records

Carl Daley

The summer of 2024 has begun, and the month of January has set records at two ends of the spectrum.

3 min read Feb 1, 2024

Market paid

Market Rules and the Numbers

Carl Daley

The rules are the rules, but prevailing numbers can move around driven by changes in perceptions. What an ending to the financial year. This article reflects on the rules learnt and then makes observations of the last two quarters in the context of the changing market conditions.

5 min read Jul 6, 2023