Carl Daley - EnergyByte

Jun-25 Generation Report

Generation capacity grew by 1,172MW. Extreme price events lifted wind and solar GWA prices, though farms couldn't fully capitalise on these events, resulting in larger discounts to TWA prices. The curtailment rate for solar and wind rose in most regions. TAS net imports from VIC hit a 15-year high.

13 min read Jul 4, 2025

Market public

June 2025 Reflections

Carl Daley

The Q2-25 forward price gradually declined well below pre-quarter expectations given the softer spot outcomes. This affected the sentiment for all future quarters causing expectations and forward prices to soften. However, before the quarter ended, the stars aligned and June gripped with vengeance.

8 min read Jul 3, 2025

Market public

Thu 26th June 2025 Event

Carl Daley

Last night delivered severe market price conditions. Triple ‘C ‘Day weather conditions (cold, calm, cloudy) eliminated wind generation and drive peak heating demand. This event shifts market price perceptions as well as being both a warning and a roadmap, for building a more resilient energy future.

10 min read Jun 27, 2025

Events public

Thu 12th June 2025 Recap

Carl Daley, Eric Chan

Last week on Thursday 12 June-25, was the single biggest price event in the market’s history and so we have reflected on what happened, why and what are the key insights?

20 min read Jun 17, 2025

Market Report paid

May-25 Spot Market Report

Jay Ros, Eric Chan, Carl Daley

NSW had the strongest average spot price for the NEM in May. Across the NEM prices were correlated with wind generation, with periods of high wind, crushing spot prices, and low wind combined with cold weather pushing up prices. Gas spot prices softened in line with the ACCC netback price.

13 min read Jun 16, 2025

public

Triple 'C' Day resets Q2-25 and beyond

Carl Daley

The extreme price events driven by yesterday’s Triple ‘C’ Day have now reset price expectations and the perception of risk for the remainder of the quarter and beyond.

3 min read Jun 12, 2025

Market Report paid

May-25 Financial Market Report

Carl Daley

So far Q2-25 spot electricity prices are following the footsteps of Q1-25, by not living up to expectations set prior to the commencement of the quarter. May-25 trades volumes were high as is normally the case, but less than May-24 levels. LGC prices strengthened and VEEC fell markedly.

7 min read Jun 3, 2025

Market Report paid

Apr-25 Generation Report

Heather Wang, Carl Daley, Eric Chan

The NEM expanded by 201MW in April. Wind farm GWA prices aligned better with rising spot prices, while solar farms showed contrary trends. All regions suffered higher wind curtailment than last April. TAS hydro generation hit a seven-year April low, deepening dependence on VIC’s exports.

14 min read May 15, 2025

Market Report paid

Apr-25 Spot Market Report

Jay Ros, Eric Chan, Carl Daley

Mild April weather led to subdued demand and average spot price outcomes across the NEM, except for short evening peak volatility for QLD and NSW early in the month. In the news, success for Labor Party confirms the ongoing transition to renewables and a strong stance on emission reduction targets.

13 min read May 8, 2025

Market Report paid

Mar-25 Financial Market Report

Carl Daley, Eric Chan

The Q1-25 quarter spot prices finished in the bottom quartile of our spot forecast, creating a significant seller’s margin profit for the quarter. Forward market prices generally rallied during the month, reversing the February downward trend.

7 min read Apr 23, 2025

Solar public

Solar Farms facing Solar Eclipse

Carl Daley

Australia's ambitious renewable energy target of 82% by 2030 hinges significantly on the success of building new wind and solar farms. However, the solar farm industry faces a looming financial crisis that could stall future development and potentially trigger write-downs of existing solar farms.

13 min read Apr 9, 2025

Market Report paid

Mar-25 Generation Report

Heather Wang, Carl Daley, Eric Chan

In March, 1,147MW of new capacity was connected. QLD was the only region to enjoy an increase in Generator Weighted Average prices, while wind weighted prices fell for all regions. SA solar and wind suffered the most curtailment. VIC was the dominant energy exporter and NSW the largest importer.

13 min read Apr 8, 2025