EnergyByte

Weekly Report Ending 18 Jan-26

Record-shattering wind, Q1-26 swaps and caps trading tell a story, plus fresh coal-plant hiccups impact prices and risk. At times renewables are crashing prices, but volatility is flexing and premiums are being paid while potential volatility prevails.

5 min read Jan 19, 2026

Market paid

Record Low Forward Prices for Q1-26

Carl Daley

For this time of the quarter, VIC has struck a 10-year Q1 low while NSW & QLD have hit a low point not seen for 5-years. The weekend volatility in NSW might help turn the tide, and history teaches us that you must treat the market with respect. But the staggering downward trends are unmistakable.

4 min read Jan 11, 2026

Market Report paid

Financial Market Annual Report

Carl Daley

Recapping 2025, market sentiment shifted downward with falling Cal-26 and Q1-26 forward prices. Trading activity increased from 2024 levels, although was less than previous years. Swaps have become less popular while Options and Caps grew. Put Options increased rapidly in some Regions.

13 min read Jan 5, 2026

Market Report public

Slip, Slop, Slap for Summer

Carl Daley

The forth coming summer will be the next pivotal point in the market. Perceptions of the risk have softened and the Q1 quarter price has heavily traded down. Will summer bite and short players get sunburnt, or will Cal-26 and onwards reflect a lower risk premia?

7 min read Dec 23, 2025

Market Report paid

Nov-25 Generation Report

Heather Wang, Carl Daley, Eric Chan

November added 824 MW to the NEM. High renewable output met low operational demand, creating severe pricing dislocation. Solar assets faced deep discounts against TWA prices and record-high curtailment rates. VIC registered its highest November net exports to NSW in five years.

15 min read Dec 3, 2025

Market public

November Finale - Impact

Carl Daley

Last week we wrote about how the final week of November has a history in shaping the market, especially for the pending summer. Well, for this year, the shaping lived up to the tradition; but in a very different manner.

6 min read Dec 1, 2025

Market Wrap public

November Finale - Danger Week

Carl Daley

The market is entering the most risky Spring stretch this year, potentially repeating history for the last week of November flexing its muscle. Hot weather in NSW and QLD combined with significant baseload outages are the ingredients in the volatility recipe.

4 min read Nov 24, 2025

Market Report paid

Oct-25 Generation Report

Heather Wang, Carl Daley, Eric Chan

October added 400 MW to the NEM, with BESS accounting for 70% of the new generation in 2025. Gladstone announced that it may retire as early as 2029. Solar GWA improved, but southern wind farms suffered from larger TWA discounts. VIC's export capacity in October continued its multi-year decline.

15 min read Nov 11, 2025

Market Report paid

Oct-25 Spot Market Report

Carl Daley, Eric Chan

Oct 2025 witnessed significant regional price variations with NSW averaging $77.02/MWh while TAS recorded just $24.55/MWh. High renewable penetration drove substantial negative pricing, particularly in SA. Demand remained robust with annual growth across most states, supported by warmer weather

14 min read Nov 7, 2025

Market Report paid

Oct-25 Financial Market Report

Carl Daley, Eric Chan

October 2025 showcased a blend of stability and dynamic shifts. Average spot prices stabilised in NSW and QLD, while SA and VIC rebounded as TAS plunged. Renewables and BESS continue to re-shape the market. Trading was dominated by hot weather preparations for Q4-25 and Q1-26. Enjoy the read.

11 min read Nov 4, 2025

Market Report paid

Sep-25 Generation Report

Heather Wang, Carl Daley, Eric Chan

An extra 2,219MW of capacity connected to the grid in September dominated by batteries. Meanwhile solar farms experienced acute pricing pressure. Combined renewable curtailment escalated to multi-year peaks across most regions. Interconnector flows moderated as warmer weather reduced demand.

14 min read Oct 8, 2025

Market Report paid

Sep-25 Financial Market Report

Carl Daley, Eric Chan

The Q3-25 spot market was mostly subdued driving a high Sellers premium. Trading quantities increased from August levels, and Swaps traded more heavily than Options. LGC prices continued to fall. Market prices for Q4-25 are at the high end of our fair value range.

7 min read Oct 7, 2025