The rules are the rules, but prevailing numbers can move around driven by changes in perceptions. What an ending to the financial year. This article reflects on the rules learnt and then makes observations of the last two quarters in the context of the changing market conditions.
Market Rules and the Numbers
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Wind price-impact lessens
In winter 2025, low wind days were dangerous as they produced extreme spot prices. In winter 2026, low wind days have been far less influential. Battery storage has broken the link between low wind and high prices, making wind a less influential price driver than it was a year ago.
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Challenges facing renewables
Solar farms across the NEM are earning less than 30 cents for every dollar of softening baseload prices, while LGC prices have collapsed. The wind sector is not immune and is facing higher canibilisation risks. PPA sellers may feel protected for now, but PPA buyers are already feeling the pain.
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May-26 Generation Trends
Battery storage transformed the NEM's evening peak in May-26, with prices dramatically lower across all regions year-on-year. QLD was the only region adding net renewable supply in the month, SA and VIC faced steep daytime price increases, and transmission flows increasingly shaped outcomes.
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