EnergyByte

Electricity spot prices continued to fall well short of market expectations in October, driving down the Q4-23 forward price. The sentiment of the market outlook is mixed with some Regions strengthening and others softening.

Could this be the calm before the storm? Low demand and high renewable generation crushed electricity spot prices during October, but how long can it last? El Niño continues to threaten a hot and dry summer with AEMO's Summer Outlook painting the picture of a market on a knife's edge.

Our Monthly Report continues with Spot Market prices where a mild September and high VRE generation brought softening electricity prices, while gas spot prices have fallen to pre-2022 price levels due to soft demand, high production and storage levels, price caps and softer international prices.

Continuing low spot prices impacted forward expectations despite the warnings of bushfires, a hot summer and possible shortages. Last October the forward market peaked, but this October is set for a downhill run as Spring conditions of plenty of wind and increasing sunshine prevail.

The electricity market bucked the trend in August with stronger spot prices and bullish activity in the electricity forward market. Revised ESOO reliability outlooks have seized the market's attention and turned attention to generator and State Government negotiations around retirement dates.

Contrary to 12-months ago, market prices have softened and are failing to live up to the market's previous expectations. Forward power prices have softened although are often able to demand a material premium because of the perceived heightened risk.

The spot prices for the financial year were the highest on record for NSW, VIC, SA and TAS, and the second highest for QLD. The June month set a new record for wind generation, pushing spot prices down and exceeding Brown Coal generation. Read on for further detail.

The first News Byte for the month is a positive outlook from AEMO's 2023 Winter Readiness Report forecasting a less severe winter with lower risks compared to 2022. Developments in the renewables and storage space also features significantly in this month's news.

May-23 was a story of increases across the energy market. Electricity spot prices were the highest year-to-date for all mainland NEM regions, forward electricity contract prices rallied across the NEM, and ancillary services costs for May were the highest year-to-date.

Energy market news for May features a variety of important developments and announcements across the energy market. Most noteworthy were the AER's final determination for the 2023-24 Default Market Offer, and a number of significant developments in the renewables sector.

Despite mild weather, low demand and high solar generation during April, the wholesale electricity spot market continued to deliver strong prices in Qld and NSW, while Vic and SA were around the median of the last seven years, and Tas lower.