EnergyByte

Biggest Strategic Shift in More than 16-Years

The market is undergoing the biggest strategic shift in coal plant offers for more than 16 years. Forward prices for the current quarter are the highest since the exceptional 2022 year and NSW Q4-26 has almost doubled in the last 5 weeks. Meanwhile Cal-27 prices across all regions have surged.

7 min read Oct 19, 2026

public

Where has the volatility gone?

Carl Daley

August 2026 NEM spot prices were calm, not just low: cap payouts collapsed to near zero, batteries are flattening the evening peaks, and every region went negative together 137 times. Forward cap premiums have repriced sharply lower as a result.

18 min read Sep 8, 2026

Market Report public

July Market Report

Carl Daley

July 2026 was a quiet month. Spot prices across the NEM were their softest for several years, the wide VIC–TAS price gap narrowed sharply, wind and solar bundled prices kept falling, and the Q3-26 forward curve gave up ground through the month in a market still firmly biased toward sellers.

12 min read Aug 7, 2026

Market Wrap public

July Volatility Fades

Carl Daley

The forward curve has been longing for justification to maintain its price level, then the threat of the extreme prices during July appeared on the radar. However, the predicted volatility faded and prices collapsed, and furthermore the financial market never believed it was going to happen.

13 min read Aug 4, 2026

Market Report public

June-26 Generation

Carl Daley

EnergyByte's June-26 & FY 25/26 generation review: BESS displace fossil fuel during crucial evening peak, renewables continue to outgrow BESS daytime charging load therefore soft daytime price persist. Solar and wind bundled prices fell 45% and 42% year-on-year.

17 min read Aug 3, 2026

Market Wrap public

June-26 Spot Market

Carl Daley

June spot electricity prices strengthened and was the lowest June in 6 years for NSW/QLD and 3 years elsewhere. This financial year was the third lowest for NSW, QLD, TAS and VIC over the last 6-years. Gas spot financial year prices were the lowest since 6 years ago and surged late in the month.

13 min read Jul 23, 2026

Market Wrap public

June-26 Financial Markets

Carl Daley

June spot prices were the lowest in 6-years on the east coast regions. Forward prices for Q2-26 failed to live up to pre-quarter expectations, although ASX trading activity continues to grow. LGC prices spiked sharply.

6 min read Jul 17, 2026

Market public

Basslink Puzzle

Carl Daley

Basslink is now regulated but it is puzzling why is it so, and why are Victorians paying 75% of the costs when Tasmania is the main beneficiary. If Basslink benefits are questionable, what does this mean for MarinusLink.

12 min read Jul 2, 2026

Market public

Wind price-impact lessens

Carl Daley

In winter 2025, low wind days were dangerous as they produced extreme spot prices. In winter 2026, low wind days have been far less influential. Battery storage has broken the link between low wind and high prices, making wind a less influential price driver than it was a year ago.

4 min read Jun 10, 2026

Market public

Challenges facing renewables

Carl Daley

Solar farms across the NEM are earning less than 30 cents for every dollar of softening baseload prices, while LGC prices have collapsed. The wind sector is not immune and is facing higher canibilisation risks. PPA sellers may feel protected for now, but PPA buyers are already feeling the pain.

12 min read Jun 9, 2026

Market public

May-26 Generation Trends

Carl Daley

Battery storage transformed the NEM's evening peak in May-26, with prices dramatically lower across all regions year-on-year. QLD was the only region adding net renewable supply in the month, SA and VIC faced steep daytime price increases, and transmission flows increasingly shaped outcomes.

18 min read Jun 5, 2026

Market Wrap public

May Spot Prices

Carl Daley

May 2026 had near-zero average daily prices to over $180/MWh in 18 days. Two strong days reshaped a month defined by renewable oversupply, collapsing LGCs, and a daily price curve increasingly sculpted by the sun. The energy transition, in full view and not yet complete.

16 min read Jun 3, 2026