EnergyByte

The forward curve has been longing for justification to maintain its price level, then the threat of the extreme prices during July appeared on the radar. However, the predicted volatility faded and prices collapsed, and furthermore the financial market never believed it was going to happen.

June spot electricity prices strengthened and was the lowest June in 6 years for NSW/QLD and 3 years elsewhere. This financial year was the third lowest for NSW, QLD, TAS and VIC over the last 6-years. Gas spot financial year prices were the lowest since 6 years ago and surged late in the month.

June spot prices were the lowest in 6-years on the east coast regions. Forward prices for Q2-26 failed to live up to pre-quarter expectations, although ASX trading activity continues to grow. LGC prices spiked sharply.

May 2026 had near-zero average daily prices to over $180/MWh in 18 days. Two strong days reshaped a month defined by renewable oversupply, collapsing LGCs, and a daily price curve increasingly sculpted by the sun. The energy transition, in full view and not yet complete.

May 2026 spot prices hit six-year lows across the mainland, Cal-27 forwards set historical lows mid-month before partially recovering, and ASX trading reached a two-year high. Yet Q2-26 forwards still trade at a premium relying on a strong or volatile June spot.

March 2026 had its lowest electricity spot prices for 5 or so years. Generally, benign outcome across the market. Domestic gas prices remained subdued, while battery storage continued to grow, although not necessarily margins. April is predicted to be warmer than average, is there more to follow?