EnergyByte

Forward electricity contract prices went for a wild ride in Q3-24. Volatile weather played a significant part in driving price outcomes, with strong price rallies in July and August followed by softening prices in September, closing well below market expectations at the beginning of the quarter.

NEM capacity grew by 1,678MW in August. With temperatures rising, energy demand dipped, while consistent strong winds boosted supply, resulting in large curtailments and declined Generator-Weighted Average prices in most NEM regions. TAS still depended on VIC energy exports due to hydro shortage.

Cold weather and low VRE generation contributed to extreme prices early in August. This was followed by unusually warm temperatures, softening demand, falling gas consumption and softer spot prices driven by record levels of renewable generation.

It has been a wild ride this winter in the forward market driven by turbulences in the spot market, structural changes in spot outcomes, prevailing weather conditions and challenges facing the market.

Electricity spot prices remained high across the NEM in July as very low temperatures drove strong demand. SA experienced extreme price volatility late in the month as cold temperatures coincided with very low wind generation. East Coast gas spot prices also remained high averaging above $13/GJ.

The NEM added 311MW of new generation capacity in July. Calm and cold weather conditions in SA, VIC, and TAS at the end of the month led to low wind output and market volatility. Gas generation increased to compensate. VIC exports to TAS reached record high levels for July.

NEM fossil fuel generation ramped up to offset the lowest wind generation for June in seven years. In Tasmania, hydro generation fell to the lowest level since 2009, Tamar Valley fired up for the first time in five years, and energy imports from VIC were the highest for June since 2017.

Electricity and gas spot price volatility intensified in June. The portion of electricity spot prices around $300/MWh swelled pushing average monthly prices beyond $150/MWh. Average daily gas hub prices hit $28/GJ in Sydney and Melbourne after AEMO announced a gas supply risk for the coming months.

There were 861MW of new generation connections in May. Despite rising wind and solar Generator-Weighted-Average prices, most NEM regions continued to have large discounts to their Time-Weighted-Average prices. Additionally, most NEM regions reported lower wind and solar curtailment rates.

May was marked by extreme price volatility in NSW where the CPT was exceeded on 8 May triggering Administered Pricing, while low wind generation contributed to high average spot prices in the southern states despite lower demand levels. Gas spot prices soared averaging above $13/GJ for all regions.

The month of May once again reflected a change in perceptions of the future electricity prices, and continued the history of being the most heavily traded month along with November, each calendar year.

The NEM continues to wait for the first new generation connection for 2024, marking the longest stretch with no new connections since 2018. Wind and solar generators performance fell in April with larger discounts to the spot price. In brighter news, wind and solar curtailment continues to fall.