Nov-23 Financial Market Report

Nov-23 Financial Market Report

November 2023 was the second most heavily traded month in history as the market softened throughout the month. Spot prices for Q4-23 continue to fail to deliver to previous market expectations.

This part of our Monthly Report concentrates on the forward prices where the Highlights section of the report draws out the key movements, and the the second half of the report outlines the charts and tables for further perusal.

1.0 Highlights

This section summarises the key market financial outcomes for the month.

1.1 Forward Market

The forward market for Cal-24 continued the trend of generally declining where:

  1. SA softened the most decreasing by about $10/MWh to $99.40/MWh, the first time below $100/MWh since May-22
  2. NSW declined by about $6/MWh to also just under $100/MWh at $99.66/MWh, also the lowest since May-22
  3. QLD decline was less at about $3.75/MWh to $92.23/MWh the lowest since March 2023 when the market price bottomed-out at $84.90/MWh
  4. VIC declined by less than $1/MWh to $69.50/MWh
  5. TAS slightly bucked the trend by increasing by $0.12/MWh to $71.46/MWh

The outlook for the next 3-years continues to show NSW and SA prices are expected to increase, yet all other Regions are in backwardation with a declining outlook.

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