Australia has voted for a change of Government, and as the Labor Party settles-in living with the largest crossbench in history, the timing of the handover from the Coalition carries challenging circumstances. Energy prices are no exception.
The Australian east coast energy market has reached an important juncture as the market grapples with the renewable transition and absorbs the global impact of rising energy prices. Origin Energy's CEO Frank Calibri prediction that, “It's going to get messy”, has arrived.
The planets have aligned leading to unprecedented market prices in all mainland States, that will add to growing cost of living pressures. Despite election promises of lower power prices, the immediate future is moving in the opposite direction.
The month of March has been another significant month as Australia has not been immune from the global upward energy price pressures, by experiencing an unparalleled surge in energy costs for the forthcoming Australian winter, which has flowed through to forward prices for the next few years.
This month is dominated by news relating to the fast tracking transition Australia is facing to renewables. Consequently, the dominant sections are Renewables, Hydrogen and Storage.
Summers are often a very strategic quarter, and this summer is no exception. Our reading of the tea leaves suggest that Snowy Hydro is successfully keeping NSW spot prices contained, to leverage their position.
February 2022 delivered much stronger electricity spot price outcomes and despite global pressures, steady gas spot prices. Next winter forward electricity prices surged and longer dated forward prices rallied driven by recent trends, the Russian invasion, and early power station retirements.
February news was dominated by AGL and Origin Energy, although Andrew Forrest continues to push hydrogen opportunities. Power plant closures are brought forward while Brookfield with Cannon-Brookes make a move on AGL.
January 2022 delivered higher electricity and environmental certificate price outcomes in the NEM, while gas remained immune from the upward global LNG price pressure. An usual high level of baseload outages occurred in NSW, and wetter conditions filled the hydro power water storages.