Biggest forward price movement in history

Carl Daley
Carl Daley
Biggest forward price movement in history

On Monday 10 October, the forward market set records with the largest daily price jump in history.

Forward market prices jumped yesterday setting records in the each of the east coast States for the largest daily price jump for the next 3-years. In summary Cal-23 jumped the largest ranging between $27.55/MWh in QLD to $18.03/MWh in VIC. The subsequent years of Cal-24 and Cal-25 followed suit, although were relatively smaller, although still a large movement.

Never before has the market jumped so high, for so long.

Forward Market Prices ($/MWh)

Over the 9 cases of the next 3-years for 3 regions, there was 8 cases which had the largest daily movement in history. The only exception was NSW Cal-23 which yesterday moved $21.00/MWh compared to 27 May earlier this year when prices increased by $21.37/MWh.

This year has been remarkable for so many reasons and has re-written so many chapters in the rule book. The pressure on capital to trade and operate in this market seems relentless and is no doubt creating more pressure on market players, as well as customers exposed to these price levels.

One of the outcomes of this year, is the forward market is skittish and behaves with significant volatility and price runs. Yesterday was no exception.

It is hard to pinpoint the reason for the price jump, but stay tuned

For reference purposes, the history of the maximum upward daily price movements is shown below for the 2-years prior to the commencement of each year:

Maximum Daily Forward Price Movement ($/MWh)

Please note that Tasmanian price movements are measured on a weekly basis.

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