June spot prices were the lowest in 6-years on the east coast regions. Forward prices for Q2-26 failed to live up to pre-quarter expectations, although ASX trading activity continues to grow. LGC prices spiked sharply.
Summary
The highlights are:
- financial year spot prices were much softer than last year, and in the case of the east cost regions, were the lowest in 6-years
- June average spot price was the lowest June result in 6-years for NSW and QLD, while for the other regions, the lowest June in 3-years
- the forward price expectations failed to be delivered by the spot prices, which is an ongoing theme. Consequently, the seller's premium was significant
- calendar year forward prices for Cal-27 reached new lows during the month, and to a lesser degree the successive years of Cal-28 and Cal-29 followed suit
- June was an exceptionally high trading activity month, reaching unprecedented levels for June
- during June, the trading activity rolled-on to Q3-26, Q4-26 and Q1-27 which is the normal behaviour
- LGC prices rebounded, although it looks more like a spike that is fading fast
Financial Year and Current Quarter Outcomes
FY-25/26 is now complete, and it is a useful reference point for where the market has landed after several volatile years. The average spot price for the year to 30 June came in at about $78/MWh for NSW, SA and TAS, followed by QLD at $65/MWh, while VIC was the softest at around $53/MWh. The decrease from FY-24/25 was between 25% (SA) and 40% (QLD).
FY-25/26 average prices were the lowest in 5-years along the east coast (NSW, QLD, and VIC); while SA was marginally above 2-years ago clustering around $78/MWh, well below 3 of the last 5-years. TAS also finished around $78/MWh, sitting above 2-years ago ($69/MWh) and marginally closer to 4-years ago ($85/MWh).
| Financial Year | NSW | QLD | SA | TAS | VIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY-20/21 | $64.69 | $61.80 | $44.83 | $43.69 | $45.93 |
| FY-21/22 | $132.35 | $162.06 | $104.60 | $84.89 | $91.06 |
| FY-22/23 | $144.96 | $144.97 | $123.25 | $111.98 | $100.20 |
| FY-23/24 | $101.57 | $87.80 | $78.56 | $69.07 | $63.29 |
| FY-24/25 | $128.16 | $109.54 | $104.31 | $109.26 | $86.84 |
| FY-25/26 | $78.44 | $65.47 | $78.67 | $78.17 | $53.21 |
Average NEM spot price by financial year ($/MWh). FY-25/26 (highlighted) closed on 30 June 2026.
Against that softer financial-year backdrop, June average spot price was the lowest June result in 6-years for NSW and QLD, while for the other regions, the lowest June in 3-years.
Looking at the monthly time series, each Region has it's own story:
- NSW has been much softer since August last year
- the last 2-months has stood taller in QLD and VIC since August last year
- SA June contained some volatile events rivalling the Australia Day event in January
- TAS finished very consistent since January, and we watch the impact of Basslink regulation from here on
The Q2-26 quarter (April–June) is now fully realised, and the forward price journey tells a consistent story of a market that opened the quarter pricing in a premium, and then spent the following three months giving it back.
The Base swap forward for Q2-26 fell from $108/MWh to $75 in NSW (−31%), from $88.00 to $56 in VIC (−37%), from $111 to $87 in SA (−21%) and from $77 to $67 in QLD (−13%).
The path was not a straight line. NSW, QLD and VIC drifted lower through most of June before firming modestly in the final week as spot prices lifted. SA saw the sharpest reversal of any region: the forward bottomed at $73.50 around 16–19 June before a rapid run to $89 by 24–25 June and a $87 close, as the quarter-to-date average spot jumped from $60 to $86 in a little over a week — the clearest signature of the SA price event that also drove June's standout monthly average.
Calendar Year Forward Prices
Cal-27 is now the front full-year contract and set fresh record lows in every region during June, extending the pattern flagged in our May report where TAS was the lone holdout. NSW fell to $83/MWh on 26 June (from $91 in May), QLD to $73/MWh on 24 June (from $79), VIC to $64/MWh on 24 June (from $70), and SA to $81/MWh on 11 June (from $82). TAS broke through its earlier February low to $72/MWh on 24 June, its lowest last-traded level in the past year.
Cal-28 and Cal-29 softened in parallel but by smaller margins, consistent with a curve where the nearest full year continues to absorb most of the current quarter's downward pressure. Cal-28 eased to $88 (NSW), $73 (QLD), $76 (VIC) and $93 (SA), while Cal-29 held up better still with NSW ($97) and SA ($95) both firmed slightly over the month even as Cal-27 fell, widening the contango across the curve.
At these price levels for Cal-28 when Yallourn is due to close, and Cal-29 when Eraring and Gladstone are due to close; shows the market is not regrading these closures as certain.
Sellers Profit
The Sellers profit continue to deliver favourable outcomes. The June quarter was a good month to have been a seller of Q2-26 financial contracts. Comparing the forward price struck for June quarter delivery against the realised outcome, swap sellers captured a premium of $50/MWh in NSW, $37 in VIC, $26 in QLD and $26 in SA.
Cap sellers fared even better in percentage terms: with the $300/MWh strike barely troubled in NSW, QLD and VIC (average payout of just $0.01/MWh), cap sellers in those regions kept almost the entire premium as profit ($26, $16 and $15/MWh respectively). SA was the exception as the late-June price event pushed the average cap payout to $14.24/MWh, still leaving sellers a net premium of almost $10 but a reminder that SA's price spike, while not enough to move the quarterly average dramatically, was sharp enough to bite into cap positions.
ASX Trading Activity
June is typically a firm trading month as market participants finalise positions ahead of the new financial year, and June 2026 delivered the strongest June on record at 56,010 MW traded, up 27% on June-25 (44,149 MW) and nearly triple June-24 (20,084 MW). The growth was concentrated in options: Call Option volume of 15,799 MW was more than double June-25's already-elevated total, and Put Option volume of 11,828 MW extended May's record run. Swap volume of 24,177 MW eased back from May's record 36,465 MW but remained well above June-25 levels.
With Q2-26 now in its expiry month, trading in that quarter naturally tapered to 4,382 MW for June as the market's attention rolled forward. The Q3-26 quarter was the most actively traded period of the month at 17,186 MW, followed by Q4-26 (5,898 MW) and Q1-27 (5,075 MW) — the usual pattern as the near quarter approaches settlement and liquidity shifts to the next few periods on the curve.
LGC Prices
The Large Generation Certificate market delivered the sharpest reversal of any series this month. After collapsing to $2.00–$2.50 across all tenors in April and May, a six-year low that we flagged as a warning sign for renewable project economics, prices roughly tripled in June.
Cal-26 moved from $2.50 to $7.00/MWh, Cal-27 from $2.50 to $6.75, Cal-28 from $2.00 to $6.50, Cal-29 from $2.00 to $6.00 and Cal-30 from $2.00 to $5.75. The curve remains close to flat across tenors, so the rebound reads as a broad repricing of near-term certificate scarcity risk rather than a change in the long-run supply outlook. Even after the bounce, LGC prices sit well below the $6.75 level recorded as recently as December 2025, so this is a partial recovery rather than a reversal of the underlying downtrend.
Recent July data shows the surge in June was not long lasting and has been falling sharply each day returning to $5/MWh in Cal-27 to $4.25/MWh in Cal-30.
Next Chapter
Our companion Spot Prices report will take a closer look at the drivers behind June's daily price outcomes — including the late-month SA event — and our Generation Trends report will examine the supply-side and weather factors behind them.
Disclaimer and Notes
Energybyte is published by Empower Analytics Pty Ltd (ABN 38630239002), Authorised Representative no 1274453 of Capital Treasury Solutions (AFSL 429066). Any questions or feedback must be directed to Empower Analytics Pty Ltd as the sole publisher.
