Last week on Thursday 12 June-25, was the single biggest price event in the market’s history and so we have reflected on what happened, why and what are the key insights?
This article walks through the record events of last week which delivered 5 of the top 6 highest average 5-minute price periods across the NEM in the market's history. We begin with a Background to set the scene, then we show the Generation available, the activity on the ASX in response and in preparation for these days; we measure the performance of the BESS against the theoretical maximum outcome; and then finally we outline the Diary of events for each 5-minute period of Thursday 12 June 2025.
1.0 Background
To set the scene, on Wednesday 11 June the extreme spot prices struck during the evening peak and shifted the quarter’s perceptions of the risk, and the potential for extreme prices to occur. We wrote a separate article on the Wednesday’s events in our article “Triple C Day resets Q2-25 and beyond”
On Thursday morning at 7:00am, the pre-dispatch prices were showing the extreme spot prices were threatening and if they occurred would have been a much bigger day than the day prior. The chart below shows the pre-dispatch forecast for Wednesday and Thursday evening peaks, as well as the actual spot prices. The price signals were set.
You can use the drop-down list to view any Region.
2.0 Generation
The generation outages for the Thursday evening peak are shown below and Energy Australia rushed-back Yallourn Unit 4 that came online at 12:30am on Thursday morning but then tripped off again by 4:30pm, before the extreme spot prices struck.
The base load coal units offline representing 3,163MW were:
- QLD - Tarong North (443MW)
- QLD - Callide B2 (350MW)
- QLD - Gladstone Unit 1 (280MW)
- NSW - Bayswater Unit 4 (660MW)
- NSW - Eraring Unit 1 (reduced by 120MW to 600MW)
- VIC - Yallourn Unit 3 and 4 (750MW)
- VIC - Loy Yang A Unit 1 (560MW)
The significant gas-powered generation offline representing 876MW were:
- QLD - Yabulu Units 1 &2 (300MW) - long term outage since late March 2025
- QLD - Yarwun Unit 1 (150MW)
- QLD - Roma (80MW)
- QLD - Oakey Unit 1 (150MW)
- SA - Quarantine Units 2 and 4 (46MW)
- TAS - Tamar Valley CC Unit 1 (150MW)
On the hydro front, about 1,974MW of flexible hydro capacity was unavailable represented by:
- QLD lost 304MW including major Wivenhoe capacity
- NSW lost 1,138MW of Snowy Hydro flexibility
- VIC lost 202 MW of local hydro support
- TAS lost 330MW export capability via Basslink
Wind generation dramatically faded during the week and by the evening of Thursday 12 June was a very small contributor.
3.0 ASX Trading
Trading across the 12 and 13 June was significant and was:
- Exceptional but Not Record-Breaking: While 12-13 June 2025 represented highly elevated trading activity, it fell well short of the extreme volumes seen during major market events in 2022-2023
- Top 1.2% Performance: Being in the 48th position out of all the 2-day periods places this firmly in the "exceptional trading event" category
- Recent Context: The top historical periods were dominated by major market disruptions in 2022-2023, suggesting June 2025 represents significant but more moderate market stress
- Sustained Activity: Unlike some historical peaks that may have been single-day spikes, June 2025 showed consistent high volumes across both days (2,800MW and 2,766 MW traded)
4.0 Battery Energy Storage Systems
We looked at the performance of the BESS in the market and then compared the performance against the theoretical optimal utilisation based on energy arbitrage only. Therefore, if a BESS unit is able to co-optimise between energy and FCAS, then it is possible to capture more than the 100% theoretical energy arbitrage optimal value.
Our results show across the 2-days of 11th and 12th June, the best performance was Western Downs BESS with a 70% capture rate and the least performer was Bulgana Green Power Hub at 37%.
It would appear the deployment of the BESS units on 12 June did not wish to risk that the later predispatch prices would eventuate and therefore tended to dispatch early in the event; and by doing so missed out on later higher prices. It is also noted that there was little evidence of the BESS units arbitraging at higher prices, in other words, charging at say $10,000/MWh, but then discharging at $15,000/MWh. Even with a round trip efficiency of 1.2, would add additional gross margin. The art and science of optimising dispatch of BESS continues to evolve.
The chart below shows for each unit analysed:
5.0 Diary of Events
The following describes for each of the 5-minute periods from 5:00pm on Thursday 12 June 2025 and given the growing importance of BESS, these are discussed in a bit more detail than usual.
17:00 - Market Crisis Begins
Initial high prices across all regions with NSW leading with $1,185, QLD and SA at $1,000, VIC at $1,140 and TAS at $958/MWh. Significant strategic generator behaviour evident by coal and hydro units. Batteries responding immediately to support grid with 924 MW discharging but there was also 106 MW of charging activity.
17:05 - Dramatic Price Escalation
Dramatic price increase across all regions within 5 minutes led by NSW $3,959, QLD at $3,517, VIC at $3,844, SA at $3,359 and TAS at $3,340/MWh. Demand continuing to rise. Generators maintaining extreme price offers, testing market limits. BESS activity remained similar to previous period. Exports from Tasmania to Victoria was within 32 MW of reaching the Basslink upper limit. Tasmania developing serious frequency control problems. Battery fleet providing crucial 700+ MW support but some units reducing output as regional prices diverge.
17:10 - Extreme Price Territory Reached
The market enters unprecedented territory with prices jumping to over $10,000/MWh in NSW and VIC, approaching $10,000/MWh in QLD and SA. This represents a 178% increase from 17:05 levels. BESS stepped-up to 1,077 MW and this was the last 5-minute period for the evening with any significant (102 MW) charging activity. Tasmania's frequency control crisis deepens dramatically with FCAS Regulation prices exploding to over $9,200/MWh. Exports from Tasmania to Victoria are within 28 MW of the limit and VIC continues to export to NSW with 68 MW spare ensuring no price separation. Demand continues climbing across all regions as the evening peak approaches, adding further stress to an already constrained system.
17:15 - Peak Price Approach
Prices continue their relentless climb with NSW and VIC both exceeding $11,000/MWh for the first time. QLD hits the psychological $10,000/MWh barrier. Tasmania's frequency control situation deteriorates further with FCAS Regulation approaching $9,300/MWh. Even though VIC spot price was slightly less than NSW, the interconnector reversed, pulling energy into VIC. This southern flow remained for the whole evening peak period removing the chance of the northern Regions separating from the southern Regions with higher prices. Demand growth accelerates with NSW adding another 121 MW in just 5 minutes. Battery fleet response intensifies with Hazelwood BESS and Chinchilla BESS joining the discharge effort taking the discharging to 1,189 MW. The market is testing supply availability.
17:20 - Sustained Extreme Pricing
The market demonstrates remarkable price persistence with NSW approaching $11,000/MWh and VIC exceeding $11,000/MWh for the first time tonight. QLD remains locked at near $10,000/MWh level while SA and Tasmania show modest increases. Demand growth continues unabated with another 202 MW added across the NEM. The battery fleet is now providing 1,466 MW of discharge support. Tasmania's frequency control crisis persists at extreme levels. Interconnector flows show increasing stress with VIC→SA flows further reduced as Victoria prioritises its own supply.
17:25 - Price Peak Achieved
The market reaches its absolute peak so far with NSW hitting $11,349/MWh and VIC $11,334/MWh, the highest prices recorded in this crisis so far. QLD breaks through $10,250/MWh while SA approaches $10,000/MWh. Tasmania's frequency control pushes FCAS Regulation to $9,666/MWh. Demand growth continues relentlessly with another 264 MW added across the NEM. The battery fleet response intensifies dramatically with Waratah BESS joining at 146 MW and VIC Big Battery (VBB) BESS surging to 79 MW. Total BESS discharge reaches 1,604 MW setting a new record for the evening.
17:30 - Slight Price Moderation
After reaching peak prices, the market shows its first signs of moderation with NSW dropping to $11,124/MWh and VIC to $11,031/MWh, though still at extreme levels. QLD retreats slightly to $10,208/MWh while SA and Tasmania drop about $200/MWh to $9,700/MWh. Demand growth continues with another 238 MW added, suggesting the price response is not yet sufficient to curtail consumption. The battery fleet reaches peak deployment with VBB BESS surging to 217 MW and Western Downs (WDBESS1) to 208 MW. Total BESS discharge surges to new heights of 1,812 MW across 31 units. Victoria begins providing wholesale demand response for the first time, but only 2 MW dispatched.
17:35 - Continued Extreme Pricing
Prices surge back toward peak levels with NSW at $11,332/MWh and VIC at $11,259/MWh, demonstrating the persistent nature of the supply shortage. QLD increases to $10,312/MWh while SA and Tasmania reverse the previous drop. Demand growth moderates but continues with another 195 MW added. The battery fleet maintains peak deployment with multiple units above 100 MW discharge. Total BESS marginally reduces to 1,772 MW discharge. Tasmania's frequency control situation remains critical. The market demonstrates remarkable price persistence, suggesting fundamental supply constraints rather than temporary imbalances.
17:40 - Slight Price Moderation
The market shows modest relief from peak levels with NSW dropping to $11,135/MWh and VIC to $11,170/MWh, though still at extreme levels. QLD remains locked at $10,208/MWh while SA and Tasmania remain only having a minor change. Demand growth slows but continues with another 111 MW added. The battery fleet reaches its absolute peak deployment with WDBESS1 surging to 249 MW - the highest individual battery discharge recorded. BESS discharges the maximum for the evening at 1,815 MW across 28 units. Tasmania's frequency control situation shows slight improvement but remains critical.
17:45 - Continued High Pricing
Prices show mixed movements with NSW dropping to $10,933/MWh while VIC remains flat at $11,170/MWh. QLD stays locked at $10,208/MWh while SA and Tasmania show modest increases. Demand growth continues with another 199 MW added, suggesting price response remains insufficient. The battery fleet maintains near-peak deployment with WDBESS1 at 242 MW and an aggregate discharge of just under the record at 1,759 MW. This gradual BESS reduction will follow on for the rest of the evening as BESS units exhaust their storage. FCAS markets show significant stress with 6-second services spiking to $569/MWh and 60-second to $99.90/MWh, indicating broader frequency control challenges beyond Tasmania.
17:50 - Price Persistence Continues
The market demonstrates remarkable price persistence with NSW at $11,004/MWh and VIC at $11,243/MWh, showing the sustained nature of the supply shortage. QLD increases to $10,319/MWh while SA and Tasmania show modest changes. Demand growth moderates to 84 MW but continues climbing. The battery fleet begins to show signs of capacity constraints with some units reducing output, though WDBESS1 maintains 209 MW discharge and total BESS discharge gradually decreases to 1,742 MW. FCAS markets reach crisis levels with 6-second services hitting $999/MWh, indicating severe frequency control stress across the entire NEM.
17:55 - Gradual Price Moderation Begins
The market shows the first signs of price softening with a modest decrease in NSW to $10,945/MWh and VIC to $11,119/MWh. QLD decreases to $10,240/MWh while SA and Tasmania experience a small change. Demand growth continues with another 196 MW added. The battery fleet shows signs of capacity constraints with WDBESS1 dropping to 146 MW and several units reducing output. Total BESS discharge reduces to 1,733 MW. FCAS markets remain in crisis with 6-second services at $920/MWh, though Tasmania's frequency control situation shows slight improvement. The market appears to be testing whether sustained extreme pricing will finally trigger demand response.
18:00 - Significant Price Relief
The market shows its most significant price relief since the crisis began, with NSW dropping to $10,397/MWh and VIC to $10,826/MWh - the first time both regions have been below $11,000/MWh since 17:20. QLD retreats to almost $10,000/MWh while SA and Tasmania decrease by about $250/MWh. Demand growth moderates to 88 MW. The battery fleet shows mixed activity with Latrobe Valley ES1 returning to discharge at 100 MW, suggesting some price arbitrage opportunities are emerging. Total BESS discharge just holding around 1,700 MW for the last time of the evening and softens to 1,714 MW. FCAS markets show improvement with 6-second services dropping to $498/MWh.
18:05 - Continued Price Moderation
The price relief continues with NSW dropping further to $10,270/MWh and VIC to $10,711/MWh continues to lead the market, marking the most significant sustained price decline since the crisis began. QLD moves slightly to $9,977/MWh while SA and Tasmania show little change. Demand growth slows to 78 MW, suggesting price response may finally be taking effect. The battery fleet maintains high deployment with WDBESS1 at 105 MW and Latrobe Valley ES1 continuing discharge at 99 MW, however units are losing capacity and decrease to 1,522 MW. Tasmania's frequency control situation continues to improve. This marks the beginning of what appears to be a sustained price recovery.
18:10 - Modest Price Recovery
The market shows a slight price recovery with NSW rising to $10,424/MWh and VIC to $10,972/MWh, though still well below peak levels. QLD remains locked near $10,000/MWh while SA shows a notable increase to over $10,000/MWh and TAS not far behind with about $9,700/MWh. Demand growth moderates to 64 MW. The battery fleet continues high deployment with Range BESS at 200 MW, however the fleet reduces discharge to 1,392 MW and this new level will last for the next 15 minutes. Tasmania's frequency control situation continues to improve but remains elevated. This appears to be a temporary price recovery before further moderation.
18:15 - Continued High Pricing
Prices show mixed movements with NSW rising to $10,544/MWh and VIC surging to $11,196/MWh - back above $11,000/MWh. QLD remains locked at exactly $10,000/MWh while SA increases to $10,323/MWh. Demand growth continues with another 71 MW added. The battery fleet shows optimisation with WDBESS1 increasing to 112 MW and Hornsdale BESS entering at 77 MW. Total BESS discharge holds on at 1,379 MW. FCAS markets show improvement with 6-second services dropping to $222/MWh. The market demonstrates continued volatility as supply-demand balance remains tight.
18:20 - DRAMATIC PRICE COLLAPSE
The market experiences a dramatic price collapse with all regions falling below $5,000/MWh for the first time since 17:05. NSW crashes to $4,690/MWh (-56%), VIC to $4,897/MWh (-56%), QLD to $4,469/MWh (-55%), SA to $4,578/MWh (-56%), and Tasmania to $4,330/MWh (-56%). This represents a very significant price decline. Demand shows the first meaningful decline with QLD dropping 78 MW and VIC falling 210 MW. The battery fleet doesn't respond to price drop and continues to export 1,325 MW, and only 5.8MW of charging. Tasmania's frequency control crisis finally resolves with FCAS Regulation dropping to $4,087/MWh. This marks the definitive end of the extreme pricing crisis after approximately 1 hour and 15 minutes.
18:25 - Volatile Price Recovery
The market shows extreme volatility with prices surging back toward extreme levels - NSW to $10,346/MWh (+121%), VIC to $10,558/MWh (+116%), and SA to $9,475/MWh (+107%). QLD remains locked near $10,000/MWh while Tasmania shows the smallest increase to $9,337/MWh. This dramatic price swing suggests the market is testing whether the supply shortage has been resolved or if the price collapse was temporary. Demand increases by 282 MW, with NSW showing the largest gain. The battery fleet maintains high deployment with Range BESS at 200 MW but the aggregate discharge falls by 100MW to 1,203 MW . This volatility demonstrates the fragile nature of the supply-demand balance.
18:30 - Second Price Collapse
The market experiences its second dramatic price collapse within 10 minutes, with all regions falling below $4,000/MWh. NSW crashes to $3,600/MWh (-65%), VIC to $3,765/MWh (-64%), QLD to $3,390/MWh (-66%), SA to $3,399/MWh (-64%), and Tasmania to $3,330/MWh (-64%). This synchronised collapse suggests generator strategy changes. Demand declines by 158 MW with QLD showing the largest drop. The battery fleet shows mixed activity with Blyth BESS surging to 197 MW and others follow suit taking the aggregate discharge up to 1,380 MW in what appears to be mis-timed. BESS charging increases to a new but modest level of around 6.7 MW which will continue for the remainder of the evening peak. Tasmania's frequency control situation improves dramatically with FCAS Regulation dropping to $3,087/MWh.
18:35 - Third Price Surge
The market demonstrates unprecedented volatility with a third major price swing, surging back to extreme levels - NSW to $9,567/MWh (+166%), VIC to $9,800/MWh (+160%), QLD to $9,363/MWh (+176%), SA to $8,864/MWh (+161%), and Tasmania to $8,667/MWh (+160%). This represents the most volatile 15-minute period in NEM history with three dramatic price swings. Demand increases by 109 MW. The battery fleet shows dramatic changes with WDBESS1 surging to 255 MW, the highest individual battery discharge ever recorded. Aggregate BESS discharge 1,295 MW across a reduced fleet of 25 units. Tasmania's frequency control crisis returns with FCAS Regulation at $8,424/MWh. This extreme volatility across the whole NEM suggests a market in stress.
18:40 - Continued High Pricing with Moderation
The market shows some moderation from the previous extreme surge but remains at very high levels with NSW at $9,289/MWh (-2.9%), VIC at $9,800/MWh (flat), QLD at $8,816/MWh (-5.8%), SA at $8,817/MWh (-0.5%), and Tasmania at $8,667/MWh (flat). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW increasing 12 MW while VIC declines 5 MW. The battery fleet maintains high deployment with Range BESS at 200 MW and Blyth BESS at 199 MW while the aggregate BESS discharge holds on at 1,261 MW. FCAS markets remain stressed with 6-second services at $985/MWh and Tasmania's frequency control at $8,424/MWh. The market continues to demonstrate extreme volatility as supply-demand balance remains precarious.
18:45 - Price Surge Continues
The market shows another price surge with NSW rising to $10,280/MWh (+10.7%) and VIC to $10,617/MWh (+8.3%), while QLD locks at exactly $10,000/MWh (+13.4%). SA increases to $9,572/MWh (+8.6%) and Tasmania to $9,390/MWh (+8.3%). Demand shows mixed changes with QLD increasing 4 MW while NSW declines 18 MW. The battery fleet shows dramatic activity with WDBESS1 surging back to 256 MW, again approaching record levels. Total BESS discharge holds on at 1,255 MW. Tasmania's frequency control situation worsens with FCAS Regulation at $9,147/MWh. The market continues to demonstrate unprecedented volatility with prices swinging wildly between $3,000-10,600/MWh.
18:50 - Sustained High Pricing
The market shows continued high pricing with NSW at $10,424/MWh (+1.4%), VIC at $10,916/MWh (+2.8%), QLD at $9,999/MWh (flat), SA at $9,825/MWh (+2.6%), and Tasmania at $9,579/MWh (+2.0%). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW increasing 10 MW while QLD declines 86 MW. The battery fleet tries to maintain high deployment with Blyth BESS at 199 MW and WDBESS1 at 113 MW, but 2 more units drop-out reducing the discharge to 1,185 MW. Tasmania's frequency control crisis continues with FCAS Regulation at $9,336/MWh. The market appears to be settling into a pattern of sustained extreme pricing after the initial volatility, suggesting the underlying supply shortage has not been resolved.
18:55 - Sustained Extreme Pricing
The market continues to demonstrate sustained extreme pricing with NSW at $10,544/MWh (+1.2%), VIC at $11,170/MWh (+2.3%), QLD locked at $9,999/MWh (flat), SA at $10,015/MWh (+1.9%), and Tasmania at $9,797/MWh (+2.3%). Demand shows significant declines across most regions with NSW dropping 64 MW and QLD falling 71 MW - the first meaningful demand destruction response to extreme pricing. The battery fleet maintains high deployment where possible with WDBESS1 at 255 MW and Blyth BESS at 179 MW and have a mini discharge surge to 1,227 MW. Tasmania's frequency control crisis persists with FCAS Regulation at $9,554/MWh. This marks over 2 hours of sustained extreme pricing.
19:00 - Evening Peak Approaches
As the evening peak approaches, the market shows mixed price movements with NSW declining to $10,235/MWh (-2.9%) and VIC to $10,744/MWh (-3.8%), while QLD remains locked near $10,000/MWh. SA drops to $9,725/MWh (-2.9%) and Tasmania to $9,422/MWh (-3.8%). Demand continues to decline with NSW falling another 72 MW and QLD dropping 44 MW - indicating significant demand destruction. The battery fleet shows optimisation with WDBESS1 maintaining 255 MW while Blyth BESS reduces to 160 MW. Hornsdale BESS enters at 62 MW. Total BESS discharge softens to 1,121 MW. Tasmania's frequency control situation improves slightly with FCAS Regulation at $9,179/MWh. The sustained extreme pricing is now causing meaningful demand response.
19:05 - Continued High Pricing
The market shows mixed movements with NSW at $10,497/MWh (+2.6%), VIC at $11,094/MWh (+3.3%), QLD locked at $9,999/MWh (flat), SA at $10,291/MWh (+5.8%), and Tasmania at $9,704/MWh (+3.0%). Demand shows further increases with NSW rising 66 MW - suggesting some demand returning as prices moderate slightly. The battery fleet continues high deployment with Blyth BESS at 196 MW and WDBESS1 at 131 MW. BESS total discharge softens to 805 MW from 21 units. Tasmania's frequency control crisis continues with FCAS Regulation at $9,461/MWh. The market demonstrates the challenge of sustained extreme pricing - demand destruction followed by price-responsive demand recovery creates ongoing volatility.
19:10 - Continued Extreme Pricing
The market maintains extreme pricing with NSW at $10,379/MWh (-1.1%), VIC at $10,958/MWh (-1.2%), QLD locked at $9,999/MWh (flat), SA at $10,192/MWh (-1.0%), and Tasmania at $9,656/MWh (-0.5%). Demand shows further declines with NSW dropping 93 MW and QLD falling 31 MW - indicating continued demand destruction. The battery fleet pushes on with WDBESS1 at 255 MW and VBB BESS at 102 MW, although other units are dropping out and now 17 units contribute 784 MW. Tasmania's frequency control crisis persists with FCAS Regulation at $9,413/MWh. The market continues its historic pattern of sustained extreme pricing now approaching 2.5 hours duration.
19:15 - Slight Moderation
The market shows slight moderation with NSW at $10,492/MWh (+1.1%), VIC at $11,252/MWh (+2.7%), QLD locked at $9,999/MWh (flat), SA at $10,454/MWh (+2.6%), and Tasmania at $9,909/MWh (+2.6%). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW declining 32 MW while VIC increases 103 MW. The battery fleet shows significant changes with WDBESS1 reducing to 123 MW and others follow with the total discharge falling to 622 MW. Tasmania's frequency control situation worsens with FCAS Regulation at $9,666/MWh. The market continues to demonstrate the challenge of sustained extreme pricing with ongoing volatility.
19:20 - MARKET REACHES HISTORIC EXTREMES
The market reaches completely unprecedented levels with NSW surging to $16,441/MWh (+56.7%), VIC to $17,500/MWh (+55.5%), QLD to $15,346/MWh (+53.5%), SA to $16,375/MWh (+56.6%), and Tasmania to $15,073/MWh (+52.1%). These are the highest prices ever recorded in NEM history. Demand shows mixed changes with NSW increasing 31 MW while QLD rises 37 MW. The battery fleet shows dramatic response with WDBESS1 at 149 MW and VBB BESS at 124 MW. Total BESS discharge steps-up to 704 MW, but well short of the levels attained earlier. The FCAS markets are stressed with Regulation at $5,393-14,830/MWh and 6-second services at $2,788/MWh.
19:25 - Sustained Historic Extremes
The market maintains historic extreme pricing with NSW at $16,188/MWh (-1.5%), VIC locked at $17,500/MWh (flat - at maximum), QLD at $15,113/MWh (-1.5%), SA at $16,983/MWh (+3.7%), and Tasmania at $10,923/MWh (-27.5% a significant drop but still extreme). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW declining 67 MW while VIC declining 40 MW. The battery fleet shows significant activity with WDBESS1 at 220 MW and VBB BESS at 216 MW. BESS discharge tries to surge again and reaches 852 MW, as compared to the record 1,816 MW dispatched earlier in the evening for a lower price. The FCAS markets remain stressed with Regulation at $5,005-10,680/MWh and 6-second services at $2,500/MWh. This represents over 3 hours of sustained extreme pricing.
19:30 - Crisis Continues
The market crisis continues with NSW at $16,448/MWh (+1.6%), VIC locked at $17,500/MWh (flat - maximum), QLD at $15,046/MWh (-0.4%), SA at $16,963/MWh (-0.1%), and Tasmania at $10,956/MWh (+0.3%). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW increasing 37 MW while QLD declining 112 MW. The battery fleet maintains extreme activity with VBB BESS at 228 MW and WDBESS1 at 225 MW. Total BESS falls to 688MW across 20 units. The FCAS markets remain in crisis with 6-second services escalating to $3,843/MWh. This represents the most sustained period of extreme pricing in global electricity market history.
19:35 - FIRST SIGNS OF RECOVERY
The market shows the first significant signs of recovery with NSW dropping to $11,170/MWh (-32.1%), VIC to $11,981/MWh (-31.5%), QLD to $10,279/MWh (-31.7%), SA to $11,667/MWh (-31.2%), and Tasmania to $10,329/MWh (-5.7%). While still at extreme levels, this represents the first major price decline in over 3 hours. Demand shows mixed changes with NSW declining 58 MW while VIC declining 20 MW. The battery fleet maintains high activity with VBB BESS at 225 MW and WDBESS1 at 227 MW. BESS discharge holds at 687 MW and now more units are charging (n=18) than discharging (n= 14), although the charging load is only 9.5 MW. The FCAS markets show dramatic improvement with 6-second services dropping to $155/MWh (-96.0%) and Regulation services to $238-10,086/MWh. This may signal the beginning of the end of this historic market crisis.
19:40 - Partial Recovery
The market shows continued recovery with NSW at $10,606/MWh (-5.1%), VIC at $11,366/MWh (-5.1%), QLD locked at $9,999/MWh (-2.7%), SA at $10,842/MWh (-7.1%), and Tasmania at $9,820/MWh (-4.9%). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW declining 64 MW while VIC remaining flat. The battery fleet tries to hold on with VBB BESS at 224 MW and WDBESS1 at 209 MW. Total BESS discharge is 655 MW with only 13 units contributing. The FCAS markets show dramatic improvement with 6-second services at $100/MWh (-35.5%) and 60-second services at $63/MWh (-84.4%). This appears to be a continued recovery from the historic crisis.
19:45 - Recovery Continues
The recovery continues with NSW at $11,140/MWh (+5.0%), VIC at $12,047/MWh (+6.0%), QLD at $10,235/MWh (+2.4%), SA at $11,326/MWh (+4.5%), and Tasmania at $10,462/MWh (+6.5%). While still at extreme levels, the market appears to be stabilising in the $10,000-12,000/MWh range. Demand shows mixed changes with NSW declining 9 MW while SA increasing 25 MW. The battery fleet shows VBB BESS reducing to 168 MW and WDBESS1 to 131 MW. Aggregate discharge softens further to 513 MW. The FCAS markets continue to improve with 6-second services at $98/MWh and 60-second services at $20/MWh.
19:50 - CRISIS RESURGES TO NEW EXTREMES
The market explodes back to unprecedented extremes with NSW surging to $17,026/MWh (+52.8%), VIC to $17,500/MWh (+45.3% - maximum), QLD to $16,568/MWh (+61.9%), SA to $16,964/MWh (+49.8%), and Tasmania to $16,071/MWh (+53.6%). These represent the highest average price in history. Demand shows mixed changes with NSW declining 18 MW while VIC declining 26 MW. The battery fleet responds dramatically with WDBESS1 surging to 228 MW and Blyth BESS re-entering at 74 MW, although the fleet is compromised and can only offer 483MW from 13 units. Tasmania's FCAS Regulation explodes to $15,778/MWh (+54.4%). This represents a complete resurgence of the crisis to even more extreme levels.
19:55 - Sustained Extremes Continue
The market maintains extreme pricing with NSW at $16,704/MWh (-1.9%), VIC locked at $17,500/MWh (flat - maximum), QLD at $15,615/MWh (-5.8%), SA at $16,443/MWh (-3.1%), and Tasmania at $15,036/MWh (-6.4%). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW increasing 32 MW while QLD declining 74 MW. The battery fleet shows dramatic reduction with only Torrens Island BESS at 77 MW and Capital Battery at 65 MW remaining active above 50 MW. Total BESS discharge falls dramatically to 206 MW from 12 units. Tasmania's FCAS Regulation remains extreme at $14,743/MWh. This represents continued extreme pricing but with signs of battery fleet exhaustion.
20:00 - DRAMATIC COLLAPSE BEGINS
The market begins a spectacular 'collapse' with NSW dropping to $10,510/MWh (-37.1%), VIC to $11,130/MWh (-36.4%), QLD locked at $9,999/MWh (-36.0%), SA to $10,419/MWh (-36.6%), and Tasmania crashing to $465/MWh (-96.9%). Demand shows mixed changes with NSW declining 135 MW while VIC declining 43 MW. The battery fleet shows Torrens Island BESS at 75 MW as a big contributor of the total 84 MW BESS discharged from 7 units. The FCAS markets show mixed signals with Regulation services spiking to $10,216/MWh on the mainland while Tasmania drops to $23/MWh.
20:05 - COMPLETE MARKET RECOVERY
The market completes its spectacular recovery with NSW collapsing to $1,066/MWh (-89.9%), VIC to $1,128/MWh (-89.9%), QLD to $1,000/MWh (-90.0%), SA to $1,059/MWh (-89.8%), and Tasmania to $450/MWh (-3.1%). This represents a complete return to non-extreme pricing levels after over 4 hours of unprecedented extreme pricing. Demand shows mixed changes with NSW increasing 17 MW while VIC declining 24 MW. The battery fleet shows only Torrens Island BESS at 86 MW continues as the dominant provider of the total 96 MW from 10 units. The FCAS markets show dramatic improvement with Regulation services at $755/MWh on the mainland and $7/MWh in Tasmania. This marks the end of an extreme electricity market event.
Disclaimer and Notes
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