Market Report

As we navigate through the summer season, the energy market is displaying several notable trends for Q1-25 as forward prices struggle to be delivered. We check the impact on the upcoming FY-25/26 which is a key component for Regulators setting the forthcoming regulated maximum residential tariffs.

In 2024, record new generation capacity joined the electricity market. Wind weighted prices were at record lows for all regions except SA, while higher daytime prices improved solar farm performance across the NEM. Broader ranges in operational demand across regions intensified market volatility.

The energy market was under considerable stress during 2024, leading to higher electricity spot prices. The pain was particularly felt towards the north with QLD and NSW recording their second-highest average prices after the 2022 Energy Crisis.

The NEM expanded its capacity by 121MW in November. Warm temperatures plus extended baseload outages contributed to tight supply-demand balance, driving exceptional NEM Generator-weighted Average price growth in November, with NSW and QLD leading gains.

High prices persisted in the electricity and gas spot markets during November, with extreme electricity spot prices in QLD and NSW, and surging gas spot prices in the STTM. The NEM survived the hottest November on record, but we aren’t out of the woods yet with a hot summer on the radar.

The NEM expanded its capacity by 167MW in October. While demand remained at historical lows, Generator-weighted Average prices strengthened across most regions. VIC continued to experience persistent negative prices, causing energy flows to shift towards regions with more favourable pricing.

Mild sunny weather led to record low minimum demand for the NEM as well as record lows in VIC and SA. Meanwhile QLD and NSW continued to separate from the rest of the NEM with significantly stronger power spot prices. Gas spot prices continued to rise with average prices around $13/GJ in October.

NEM capacity grew by 340MW in September. Strong winds and mild weather led to lower demand and extensive curtailment, depressing Generator-Weighted Average prices. Many farms increased reliance on Large-scale Generation Certificates for revenue. TAS transitioned from importer to net exporter to VIC.

The NEM Q3 average price finished the highest since the 2022 Energy Crisis despite extremely low September prices for VIC and TAS. In SA, volatile winds drove volatile spot prices, while mild days with high VRE crushed prices in VIC and TAS. Meanwhile, NSW and QLD had above average price levels.

Forward electricity contract prices went for a wild ride in Q3-24. Volatile weather played a significant part in driving price outcomes, with strong price rallies in July and August followed by softening prices in September, closing well below market expectations at the beginning of the quarter.

NEM capacity grew by 1,678MW in August. With temperatures rising, energy demand dipped, while consistent strong winds boosted supply, resulting in large curtailments and declined Generator-Weighted Average prices in most NEM regions. TAS still depended on VIC energy exports due to hydro shortage.

Cold weather and low VRE generation contributed to extreme prices early in August. This was followed by unusually warm temperatures, softening demand, falling gas consumption and softer spot prices driven by record levels of renewable generation.