October 2025 showcased a blend of stability and dynamic shifts. Average spot prices stabilised in NSW and QLD, while SA and VIC rebounded as TAS plunged. Renewables and BESS continue to re-shape the market. Trading was dominated by hot weather preparations for Q4-25 and Q1-26. Enjoy the read.
1.0 Highlights
October 2025 confirmed a maturing yet still lively National Electricity Market (NEM). Average monthly spot electricity prices in New South Wales and Queensland steadied at roughly $77/MWh and $56/MWh respectively. From last year, South Australia and Victoria rebounded to $50/MWh and $51/MWh respectively as firmer evening peaks counter-balanced continuing negative-price episodes, while Tasmania’s mean spot price halved to $25/MWh amid abundant hydro inflows.
Forward curves echoed a calmer tone. When both upward and downward daily moves of at least ± $3/MWh are counted, the Q4-25 base-swap only had seven “jump” days in NSW (four up, three down) and two in QLD (both down); SA and VIC recorded none, versus six apiece for the equivalent Q4-24 strip one year earlier. Contract levels nevertheless traced a brief rally before retreating. For movements for Q4-25 were:
