Carl Daley

Spring renewables crushed daytime prices, FCAS costs dived, gas stayed cheap, yet cool nights pushed record peaks. Which states set demand lows, and what risks still lurk. Delve into our data-rich September wrap for further insights.

Aug-25 NEM spot prices fell from last year's levels, but much less for TAS. Negative prices surged in QLD, exceeding SA for the first time. A cold August drove NSW, SA and VIC demand increases. SA’s FCAS hit $35.6 M, the highest since Feb-20. Gas spot prices steady while Iona storage lowered.

The August 2025 forward market rebounded after a late July fall. VIC Cal-28 rose significantly while Q3-25 exhibited greater volatility. Options trading surged to 46% of total flow. Despite lower overall volumes, strategic opportunities emerged amid seasonal fluctuations and risk management shifts.

NEM capacity expanded by 69MW in August. Solar farm weighted prices continue to struggle while wind continues to be less adversely impacted. Batteries provided crucial FCAS in SA while VIC continued its role as a key energy hub. Lower TAS wind generation led to highest spot prices.

July 2025 spot market conditions reflected strong pricing in SA and TAS, and more moderate pricing in the other Regions. SA also dominated FCAS costs for the month which were the highest SA FCAS costs since Nov-22, and the second highest in SA’s history. Gas markets operated within normal ranges.

In July, capacity increased by 215MW, Generator Weighted Average prices declined along with Time Weighted Averages, VRE curtailment rates increased, and batteries provided crucial grid stability. VIC remained the dominant energy exporter while Snowy storages are the lowest in 5-years.

The Q3-25 quarter spot prices have struggled to meet forward price expectations leading to a softening of the current quarter forward price and all future periods. However, the quarter is not yet finished, and there is time for a recovery.

June 2025 caused a strong finish to the financial year with extreme volatility across the NEM, although QLD’s impact was tempered by interconnector constraints. Power plant outages were a big driver on spot price outcomes. Gas prices were also elevated during critical days.

Generation capacity grew by 1,172MW. Extreme price events lifted wind and solar GWA prices, though farms couldn't fully capitalise on these events, resulting in larger discounts to TWA prices. The curtailment rate for solar and wind rose in most regions. TAS net imports from VIC hit a 15-year high.