Spot Market Annual Report

This report provides:

1. a view of the 2025 spot prices in the context of history
2. a recap of the December spot prices and with the completion of the quarter, also Q4-25
3. price band analysis in December 2025 and Cal-25 showing the change in the profile of spot prices
4. negative price trends during the 2025 year, and then longer history
5. risk-of-change history showing how resiliant the price outcomes have generally become since mid last year
6. consumption and demand trends, along with daily December outliers
7. weather patterns for December, and then Heating and Cooling Degree Days
8. ancillary services and noting how they have changed

1.0 Historical Overview

Electricity spot prices across the National Electricity Market have normalised markedly since the turmoil of 2022. That year saw extreme averages which peaked at about $205/MWh in Queensland and $183/MWh in New South Wales driven by fuel-price shocks, unit outages and tight supply. As global energy pressures eased, gas prices softened and additional renewable capacity entered service, 2023 prices more than halved in every Region, settling in a $55–$96/MWh range.

A modest rebound followed in 2024, most evident in NSW to approximately $131/MWh and Queensland at $111/MWh, reflecting higher baseload outages, weather induced volatility, potential Tasmanian drought conditions across the winter of 2024 and wind droughts in Autumn 2024. Into 2025, however, the averages indicate a slight softening, with all mainland regions clustered between roughly $78 and $103/MWh. The convergence suggests that structural changes from rising renewable penetration, improved coal availability, battery storage increasing and operational demand changes all tempering regional price divergence and curbing the exceptional highs seen in previous years.