For this time of the quarter, VIC has struck a 10-year Q1 low while NSW & QLD have hit a low point not seen for 5-years. The weekend volatility in NSW might help turn the tide, and history teaches us that you must treat the market with respect. But the staggering downward trends are unmistakable.
Quarter 1 of 2026 is less than 2 weeks old, yet the forward curve has already delivered a clear statement about how market participants perceive the current quarter which will have a flow-on impact on subsequent quarters.
Q1-26 Unfolding
Friday 9 January is 81 days before the end of March and the Victorian Q1-26 quarter has traded below $50/MWh for the first time in 10 years at a similar point in time. On Friday, the lowest trade was at $47.75/MWh, and the median traded price was $49.50/MWh. The closing price was higher at $52.56/MWh following an updated predispatch outlook showed an increased risk of volatile evening peak spot prices as Melbourne sweltered under 42.9 degrees.
