Parallels between the Australian Open and the NEM

Basslink is now regulated but it is puzzling why is it so, and why are Victorians paying 75% of the costs when Tasmania is the main beneficiary. If Basslink benefits are questionable, what does this mean for MarinusLink.

In winter 2025, low wind days were dangerous as they produced extreme spot prices. In winter 2026, low wind days have been far less influential. Battery storage has broken the link between low wind and high prices, making wind a less influential price driver than it was a year ago.

Solar farms across the NEM are earning less than 30 cents for every dollar of softening baseload prices, while LGC prices have collapsed. The wind sector is not immune and is facing higher canibilisation risks. PPA sellers may feel protected for now, but PPA buyers are already feeling the pain.