Victorian Easter spot prices were the lowest in 23 years, with Good Friday and Easter Saturday averaging below zero. South Australia has now averaged around $30/MWh for 5 of the last 7 years. Base swap forward prices for Q2-26 have returned to mid-February levels and VIC is at a record low.
A Recap of Easter Prices
Over more than two decades the Easter break has turned from a period of modest, predictable spot prices into one that alternates between deep discounts and sharp spikes, mirroring the NEM’s broader evolution.
In the formative years, 2000 to 2006, holiday spot-price means hovered in the mid-teens to mid-twenties dollars per megawatt-hour for New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (QLD) and Victoria (VIC), with South Australia (SA) only marginally higher.
Volatility first became pronounced in 2007 when drought-restricted hydro and reduced water cooling for coal power stations elevated Easter prices to circa $50/MWh. Between 2008 and the introduction of the Carbon tax in July 2012, Easter average prices remained around $22/MWh for the mainland States and Tasmania stronger at around $30/MWh.
The middle of the decade proved uneven. While 2012, 2014 and 2015, slipped back into the $30–40/MWh range due to new wind capacity and flat demand. However, Easter 2013 averaged just under $50/MWh with TAS ($53/MWh) and VIC ($43/MWh) holding the bookends.
Basslink's failure in 2016 drove TAS Easter to record levels of $235/MWh, the highest ever across the NEM.
Easter 2017 was the first holiday post the accumulated closures including Hazelwood leading to reduced base load capacity, world parity gas prices and modest inter-regional support pushing holiday averages to approximately $105/MWh in both NSW and VIC, $94/MWh in QLD, a hefty $119/MWh in SA and an exceptional $172/MWh in hydro-constrained TAS.
Easter of 2019 set a record low level of an average of negative $37/MWh in SA, flooded by surplus wind and solar generation. The COVID-affected years of 2020-2021 had increased stability with Easter averages falling below $42/MWh across the mainland and dipped to the low-twenties in NSW and VIC in 2021. However, 2022 shattered records; global fuel price shocks and domestic generator outages pushed Easter averages to just below $120/MWh across all Regions.
In 2023 and 2024, prices quickly reversed with robust wind and rooftop-solar output, alongside better coal availability, resulting in prices ranging from $28/MWh for SA in 2023 to $62/MWh in TAS in 2024.
Easter 2025 had much stronger performances, with NSW averaging $67/MWh, QLD $72/MWh and TAS $68/MWh. SA was the lowest at $32/MWh followed by a slightly stronger VIC at $34/MWh.
Easter 2026
The 2026 holiday deepened the divergence between the Regions. Victoria experienced its lowest Easter average since 2003 at just $11.50/MWh, following two days averaging negative prices, while SA averaged $28/MWh. In contrast, NSW and QLD settled closer to $58/MWh and $42/MWh respectively, and TAS recording the highest at $83/MWh.
Easter minimum-demand statistics underline the NEM's structural change.
- NSW’s highest minimum demand of 6,300 MW in 2011 has reduced to 5,400 in 2026
- QLD minimum demand peaked in 2018 at 5,300 MW, compared to 4,300 MW in 2026
- VIC highest minimum demand was around 4,300 MW from 2008 to 2011, falling to 2,750MW in 2026
- SA highest minimum demand was around 1,100 MW from 2009 to 2014, dropping to 340 MW in 2026
- TAS highest minimum demand was just over 1,000 MW, reduced to 874 MW in 2026
Measuring the Easter demand swing from lowest to highest, it shows the NEM is more suited to flexible generation. Over the Easter periods:
- QLD demand swing has changed from about 1,500 MW in 2000 to over 3,000 MW in 2026
- VIC demand swing has increased from 1,100 MW in 2000 to 2,700 MW in 2026
- SA demand swing has risen from 480 MW to 1,200 MW
- TAS has remained stable around 300 MW
- NSW started at around 2,500 MW in 2000, peaked at over 4,000 MW in 2025, before decreasing to 2,700 MW in 2026
Forward Market Impact
Yesterday, forward markets reflected the Easter spot price outcomes with Victoria softening the greatest. The Victorian Q2-26 base swap price dropped by $4.10/MWh, followed by South Australia at $3/MWh.
The ongoing tension between high expectations of forward prices for Q2-26 and the prevailing spot prices continues to unfold. Since the forward base swap maximum price was reached on 9 March 2026 amid the Middle East conflict, Q2-26 forward base prices for NSW have decreased by $24.50 to $109/MWh, VIC has followed by falling $21.56 to $83.90/MWh, QLD is down $15.66 to $77.65/MWh and SA softened by $5 to $107.50/MWh.
The Q2-26 base swap market prices have now returned to the low levels seen in the third week of February, or in the case of VIC, is now the lowest in history.
The history of the Easter holiday average prices are shown below since the year 2000. You can deselect any Region to highlight any case.
The Q2-26 base swap forward prices are shown below since the start of February 2026.
The minimum and maximum demand levels over the Easter period for each year is shown below and by using the drop-down list, you can select the Region. If the x-axis years are clipped on your screen, simply use the vertical slider on right hand side to move the chart upward.
Disclaimer and Notes
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