Australia Day 2026 in South Australia played out as a challenging day with searing heat, a mid-day wind slump, and a valiant yet ultimately exhausted, fleet of big batteries.
• 00 00-06 00 🕛 | A false sense of calm
Spot prices were averaging $94/MWh with wind increasing from 500 to 1,150 MW through the early hours of the morning. Gas turbines were firing, starting from about 800 MW but then decreased to 300 MW as wind increased. Batteries were nimble, charging up to 150 MW before 3:00 am and discharging up to around 125 MW before 6:00 am. Gas spot prices remained low at less than $12/GJ, despite the predicted increase in gas powered generation consumption. Demand forecasts looked manageable, yet the thermometer was already climbing towards the predicted mid-40's °C.
• Morning to mid-afternoon 🌞 | Heat mounts, wind slumps
Adelaide’s scorching 45.5 °C average maximum sent air-conditioning demand soaring. Wind output fell from around 1,150 MW at 7:00 am to less than 600 MW by 9:00 am and hovered at 300–450 MW through the early afternoon. Utility and roof-top solar helped with 2,200 MW around midday, and prices stayed benign at $7 to $120/MWh (9:00 am - 1:00 pm). Gas generation cruised near 130 MW to midday then ramped up to over 800 MW by 4:00 pm, while batteries absorbed surplus PV and charged up to 370 MW with little discharging .
• Late afternoon ⚡️ | The surge begins
By 4:00 pm falling wind (276 MW) and climbing demand flipped the market. Spot prices sat around $300/MWh to 5:20pm, wind stayed stuck in the 230 MW to 340 MW range and gas thrust upward to over 1,100 MW by 5:00 pm. Batteries were largely idle but then discharged over 100 MW for 10 minutes following the first post $300/MWh price spike, but then conserved their energy for the forthcoming evening peak.
• Early evening 🔥 | The price inferno
With wind marooned at 240–280 MW and solar fading fast, South Australia pursued the Market Price Cap. At 7:10 pm, prices reached $19,029 /MWh and stayed around this level until 9:35 pm, lasting nearly 2.5 hours. Gas peaked at over 1,900 MW, while batteries hit the "go button" and dispatched up to 624 MW at 7:35 pm before the downhill run of energy stores began. By 8:00 pm battery dispatched had decreased to 500 MW, half an later it was down to 376 MW, then by 9:00 pm it was all exhausted.
• Night-time relief 🌬️ | Wind returns, prices ease
From 9:45 pm wind began to recover and continued to climb while spot prices declined to an average less than $800/MWh to midnight with occasional spikes occurring (e.g $8,800 at 10:35 pm). Wind, gas generation and imports maintained the system thereafter.
Take-aways
- Heat-stoked demand plus fading wind forced gas to shoulder the load and as the system tightened, spot prices propelled to the market cap.
- Batteries delivered a crucial but finite peak-punch at just over 620 MW, but an hour later had halved, and another hour had all disappeared.
- Solar is large in SA and peaked at over 2,200 MW but the sunset crunch ensured the classic “solar cliff” that sharpened the evening price ramp.
- The twin peaks dynamic played-out again with the maximum demand not coinciding with the maximum price.
- Once the day finished, the day's events placed South Australia half-way towards triggering an Administered Price Cap of $600/MWh. If a similar event was to occur within a week, administered prices would likely be invoked.
- Prior to the quarter commencing, the $300/MWh cap was valued at around $29/MWh and then following Australia Day, jumped from $25.20/MWh to $56.50/MWh. By the end of the week has slightly softened to $52/MWh. The event has locked-in $36.30/MWh of value for the quarter, so therefore will be more than the trading levels observed in last December
- The episode underscores both the value and the limits of fast-acting storage and highlights South Australia’s dependence on the gas turbine fleet and favourable wind to avoid extreme scarcity pricing on the hottest days after sunset.
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