Spring Season Reflections

Carl Daley -

Average Prices

In comparison to September last year, VIC had the strongest recovery; then QLD and NSW despite all the negative prices, exceeded last year's performance. Meanwhile, TAS continued its tradition of a very soft September over the last three years, but was slightly stronger than last year. SA softened from last year's lofty heights and retracted to a respectable price level.



Negative Spot Prices

QLD experienced a surge in negative prices, setting a new monthly record of 33% of the time in negative territory. NSW followed suit, also setting a new record of 26%, demonstrating that the northern states are feeling the effects of abundant daytime renewable generation.



Market Share

It would have been reasonable to presume that additional QLD solar (both rooftop and utility-scale) would have been the cause of the increase in negative prices; however, the facts proved otherwise. Looking at the technology market shares, combined solar in QLD and NSW was almost exactly the same as last year, but wind generation had increased.



Curtailment

NSW solar generation also faced less curtailment compared to same time last year, although SA curtailment continued the upward projection.



Seller's Profit

By comparing the trade-weighted forward base price for the quarter prior to the quarter commencing versus the actual average spot price, it is possible to determine the so-called Seller's Profit. The Q3-25 quarter had the second highest base swap Seller's Profit in Q3 history for QLD and NSW. Meanwhile, VIC wasn't too far behind the record, being the third highest on record. Looking at all quarters in recent history, the base swap Seller's Profit for Q3-25 was only second to the record-setting Q1-25.

On the $300/MWh cap market front, Q3-25 had a record Q3 Seller's Profit in all mainland states except for SA. In recent history, QLD and NSW Cap Seller's Profit was only second to the Q1-25 record.



What's Next?

Our detailed Monthly Reports are forthcoming as we move into the notoriously windy month of October, which often leads to soft spot prices. The generator outage season also begins with vengeance, and September saw a record battery capacity connecting to the NEM.

Stay tuned.



Disclaimer and Notes

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This newsletter contains general information and is not advice to buy or sell any position.